Why astronomers are tracking an asteroid that could potentially strike the moon

NASA has recently observed the 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4, which was initially thought to have a 3.1% chance of striking Earth in December 2032. However, further observations have eliminated the possibility of an Earth impact at that time. The asteroid's unique orbit brings it close to Earth before it ventures far into the solar system, making it challenging to track. Using the James Webb Space Telescope, NASA has determined that 2024 YR4 measures between 174 feet and 220 feet in diameter. It now has a 1.7% chance of hitting the moon in 2032, and a 1.1% chance of striking Earth in 2047.
The discovery and tracking of 2024 YR4 underscore the importance of monitoring near-Earth objects, as Congress has tasked NASA with locating asteroids larger than 450 feet that could cause regional damage. The asteroid's size is comparable to the Tunguska event in 1908, which caused significant destruction in Siberia. Although the probability of a strike is currently low, NASA and astronomers continue to watch the asteroid closely to mitigate any potential future risks. This vigilance reflects the broader planetary defense efforts to protect Earth from potential asteroid impacts.
RATING
The article effectively communicates the discovery and monitoring of asteroid 2024 YR4, providing accurate and well-supported information from credible sources like NASA. It is timely and relevant, addressing public interest in space exploration and planetary defense. The article is clear and engaging, although it could benefit from additional context on technical aspects and more diverse perspectives to enhance balance. While it successfully raises awareness of the potential risks and NASA's efforts, it could further explore broader implications for policy and international cooperation. Overall, the story is a strong piece that informs and engages readers about an important scientific topic.
RATING DETAILS
The story is largely accurate and aligns well with established facts from reliable sources. It accurately reports the discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 and its size, as confirmed by NASA and the Minor Planet Center. The dimensions of the asteroid are consistent with NASA's infrared observations. However, there is a slight discrepancy in the reported probability of the asteroid hitting the moon, which the article states as 1.7%, whereas other sources suggest around 1%. Additionally, the story correctly identifies the asteroid's orbit and the use of the James Webb Space Telescope for observations. The risk assessments for potential Earth impacts in 2032 and 2047 are also in line with NASA's current evaluations. Overall, the article presents a well-supported narrative with minor variances in specific figures.
The article provides a balanced view of the asteroid's potential threat by highlighting both the initial concerns and the subsequent reassurances from NASA. It effectively communicates the reduced risk of an Earth impact while acknowledging the ongoing monitoring efforts. However, the story could have benefitted from including perspectives from independent astronomers or planetary defense experts outside of NASA to provide additional viewpoints. This would have enriched the narrative by offering a more comprehensive understanding of the potential risks and the scientific efforts involved in monitoring such asteroids.
The article is generally clear and well-structured, with a logical flow of information that guides the reader through the discovery, risk assessment, and monitoring of asteroid 2024 YR4. The language is accessible, avoiding overly technical jargon, which aids comprehension for a general audience. However, some readers might find the discussion of probabilities and risk assessments slightly confusing without additional context or explanation. Providing more background on how these probabilities are calculated could enhance understanding.
The article relies heavily on credible sources, primarily NASA and its affiliated experts, such as Kelly Fast and Davide Farnocchia. These sources are authoritative in the field of astronomy and planetary defense, lending significant credibility to the information presented. The use of direct quotes from these experts enhances the story's reliability. The article also references the James Webb Space Telescope, a well-known and reputable tool in space observation, further supporting the quality of the information. However, the inclusion of additional independent sources could have provided a more rounded perspective.
The article is transparent in its reporting, clearly attributing information to NASA and specific experts like Kelly Fast. It explains the basis for the asteroid's risk assessment and the methods used to gather data, such as infrared observations. However, it could improve transparency by detailing the methodologies behind the risk calculations and the decision-making processes at NASA. Additionally, while the article mentions the use of the James Webb Space Telescope, it does not elaborate on how this technology contributes to the observations, which would have provided further clarity.
Sources
- https://abcnews.go.com/US/small-chance-asteroid-hit-earth-decade-nasa/story?id=118309189
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4
- https://abcnews.go.com/US/chances-asteroid-striking-earth-decade-doubled-nasa/story?id=118653026
- https://astronomynow.com/2025/02/23/nasa-downgrades-the-risk-of-2024-yr4-to-below-1/
- https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/nasas-webb-telescope-captures-photos-asteroid-hit-earth-120427661
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