Odds Of Disneyland-Sized Asteroid Hitting Earth Just Went Up

Forbes - Feb 7th, 2025

The potential impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Earth has increased, with astronomers revising the odds from 1.3% to 2.3% for a possible collision on December 22, 2032. This asteroid is about a third of a mile in diameter, slightly larger than Disneyland, and currently leads NASA's Sentry list for potential Earth-impacting objects. The projected risk corridor spans the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. While the International Asteroid Warning Network has issued a warning about the threat of severe damage up to 31 miles from the impact site, some experts argue that the risk could be as high as 6%, suggesting a one-in-17 chance of impact.

The significance of asteroid 2024 YR4 lies in its placement on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, with a value of 3, marking it as a notable object of concern. However, past data indicates that initial threat assessments often decrease as more information is gathered. Dr. Shyam Balaji highlights the importance of early interventions, such as potential deflection missions, which could be crucial in altering its trajectory. Observations and data collection are critical until 2025, as the asteroid will not be visible again until 2028, making ongoing monitoring essential. Despite uncertainties, the concern is mitigated by historical trends where many such asteroids are eventually deemed non-threatening.

Nasa International Asteroid Warning Network Asteroid Impact Asteroid 2024 Yr4 Near Earth Objects

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RATING

6.0

Moderately Fair

Read with skepticism

The article provides a comprehensive overview of asteroid 2024 YR4's potential impact, highlighting increased probabilities and possible consequences. It effectively raises public awareness about the importance of monitoring near-Earth objects and discusses potential deflection strategies. However, the reliance on an amateur astronomer's calculations without corroboration from official sources weakens its accuracy. The article's balance could be improved by including perspectives from a wider range of stakeholders. While it is timely and addresses issues of public interest, the inclusion of unrelated content and lack of methodological transparency detract from its overall quality. Despite these shortcomings, the article maintains a clear and engaging narrative that is accessible to a broad audience.

Accuracy

The article provides a detailed account of asteroid 2024 YR4's potential impact on Earth, with specific data points such as the increased probability of impact from 1.3% to 2.3%. However, the claim regarding Sam Deen's calculation of a 6% impact probability requires further verification, as it is not supported by official astronomical sources. The article accurately describes the asteroid's size, comparing it to Disneyland, and outlines the regions within the 'risk corridor.' Yet, the lack of direct citations from authoritative sources like NASA or the ESA for some claims slightly undermines its factual accuracy.

Balance

The article primarily presents the perspective of scientists and astronomers regarding the potential impact of asteroid 2024 YR4. It includes views from both professional and amateur astronomers, which provides some balance. However, it does not offer perspectives from other stakeholders, such as government agencies or public safety officials, which could provide a more comprehensive view of the potential implications of the asteroid's trajectory.

Clarity

The article is generally clear and well-structured, presenting information logically and in a reader-friendly manner. The use of comparisons, such as the size of the asteroid relative to Disneyland, helps convey complex information more accessibly. However, the inclusion of unrelated headlines towards the end of the article detracts from its clarity and focus.

Source quality

The article references reputable organizations like NASA and the International Asteroid Warning Network, which enhances its credibility. However, it relies on statements from an amateur astronomer without corroborating these with official data, which could affect the reliability of the information presented. The absence of direct quotes or data from primary sources such as NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory or ESA weakens the article's overall source quality.

Transparency

While the article provides some context regarding the monitoring and discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4, it lacks transparency in terms of the methodologies used to calculate impact probabilities. The article does not explain how the probabilities were derived or the scientific basis for the risk assessments, which could help readers better understand the information's foundation.