WH study warns 9 million Americans could lose health insurance in 'major' recession if Trump budget bill fails

Fox News - May 18th, 2025
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The White House has released a study indicating that up to 9.2 million more Americans could lose health insurance if President Donald Trump's budget bill does not pass amid an anticipated recession. This analysis, from the White House Council of Economic Advisers, predicts that the number of uninsured could rise from 27 million to 36 million by 2025. The bill aims to prevent a recession that could result from the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which could lead to a 4% GDP contraction and 6.5 million job losses. Republicans, led by House Ways and Means Committee chair Rep. Jason Smith and Speaker Mike Johnson, are pushing to pass the bill, which includes over $5 trillion in tax cuts and various spending cuts, by a self-imposed Memorial Day deadline.

The implications of the bill's failure are significant, with Medicaid cuts and reduced ACA subsidies potentially affecting millions, especially vulnerable groups like non-citizens, gig workers, and early retirees. The proposed bill not only seeks to avert economic downturns but also fulfills many of Trump's campaign promises, such as tax breaks on auto loans and new MAGA accounts for children. However, internal GOP divisions threaten its passage, raising concerns about potential economic and healthcare crises akin to pre-ACA conditions. The bill's success hinges on unifying Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the House, to support this expansive fiscal package.

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RATING

6.4
Moderately Fair
Read with skepticism

The article provides a detailed account of the potential consequences of not passing President Donald Trump's proposed budget bill, focusing on healthcare and economic impacts. It presents clear factual data and projections, but its reliance on a single source—the White House Council of Economic Advisers—limits its balance and source quality. The lack of diverse perspectives and methodological transparency reduces the overall reliability of the story. While the topic is timely and of significant public interest, the article could benefit from a more comprehensive exploration of opposing viewpoints and independent analyses to enhance its accuracy and impact. Despite these limitations, the article remains engaging and accessible, effectively highlighting the stakes involved in the legislative debate.

RATING DETAILS

7
Accuracy

The story presents several factual claims related to the potential impacts of President Donald Trump's proposed budget bill. These include estimates of increased uninsured Americans, economic projections, and specific impacts on vulnerable groups. While the story is detailed, it relies heavily on a memo from the White House Council of Economic Advisers, which may reflect a particular political perspective. The assumptions behind these estimates, such as the potential for a recession and the lack of policy countermeasures, require further verification from independent sources to ensure accuracy. The story accurately cites numerical data, but these figures need cross-referencing with independent economic analyses to confirm their validity.

6
Balance

The article primarily presents the perspective of the White House and Republican lawmakers, focusing on the potential negative consequences if the budget bill does not pass. It lacks representation of opposing views, such as those from Democrats or independent economists who might challenge the assumptions or conclusions presented. This creates an imbalance, as the article does not sufficiently explore alternative analyses or critiques of the proposed bill. Including a broader range of perspectives would provide a more balanced view of the issue.

8
Clarity

The article is generally clear in its language and structure, providing a logical flow of information from the introduction of the budget bill to the potential consequences of its failure. The use of concrete figures and specific examples helps in understanding the potential impacts. However, the article could benefit from clearer differentiation between factual data and projections or assumptions, which would enhance reader comprehension.

6
Source quality

The primary source of information is a memo from the White House Council of Economic Advisers, which is an authoritative source but may have inherent biases due to its political affiliations. The article also references statements from Republican lawmakers, further skewing the source quality towards one political viewpoint. The lack of independent sources or expert opinions outside of government-affiliated entities limits the breadth of the report and may affect its impartiality.

5
Transparency

The article does not provide detailed explanations of the methodologies used to arrive at the projections and estimates mentioned. While it mentions assumptions such as the lack of policy countermeasures, it does not delve into how these assumptions were formulated or their likelihood. The absence of methodological transparency makes it challenging to assess the reliability of the projections and the potential impact of the proposed budget bill.

Sources

  1. https://abc11.com/post/republicans-proposing-medicaid-cuts-part-president-donald-trump-spending-bill-leaving-americans-worried/16439037/
  2. https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/05/13/congress/cbo-megabill-medicaid-00345235
  3. https://tcf.org/content/commentary/15-million-americans-could-lose-health-coverage-under-republican-plans/
  4. https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/how-will-the-2025-budget-reconciliation-affect-the-aca-medicaid-and-the-uninsured-rate/
  5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lysPQ-t5hLk