Toilet paper shortage could be coming to US thanks to Trump tariffs

New York Post - May 9th, 2025

President Donald Trump's ongoing trade war is causing significant concerns among global suppliers of paper products, particularly the Brazilian company Suzano SA, which is the world's largest exporter of pulp. The imposition of US tariffs is disrupting the supply chain, leading to a 20% reduction in exports to the US, and raising fears of a toilet paper shortage reminiscent of the 2020 crisis. Suzano's CEO, João Alberto de Abreu, has highlighted the increased costs passed on to US buyers and warned of potential further supply chain tensions and rising prices if the trade barriers persist. The situation has already affected the pulp industry, causing Suzano's shares to drop significantly, and is complicating contract negotiations and pricing strategies due to the tariff uncertainties.

The implications of this development are broad, indicating a shift in trade disputes from luxury and high-tech goods to essential commodities. Suzano's situation underscores the risk that trade tensions could disrupt the supply of basic goods, impacting consumers directly. The Brazilian pulp industry, a critical supplier during the pandemic-era shortages, is now a focal point in the trade skirmish, as it grapples with maintaining market share amid rising costs. Additionally, Apollo Global Management has warned that the tariffs on Chinese goods could lead to empty store shelves and potentially push the US economy into a recession by the summer of 2025. The ongoing trade policies are predicted to result in a cascade of economic disruptions, including product shortages, retail slowdowns, and layoffs, drawing parallels to the COVID-19 induced supply chain crises.

Donald Trump Brazil Tariffs Us Economy Trade War Supply Chain Suzano Sa Pulp Industry Toilet Paper Shortage

Story submitted by Fairstory

RATING

7.2

Fair Story

Consider it well-founded

The article effectively highlights the potential impact of trade policies on the pulp industry and consumer goods like toilet paper. It draws on credible sources and presents its findings clearly, making it accessible to a general audience. However, the story could benefit from a more balanced perspective by including viewpoints from policymakers or economists who support the tariffs. While the article is timely and relevant, particularly in light of recent supply chain disruptions, some claims, especially economic predictions, require further verification. Overall, it provides a solid foundation for understanding the issue but could enhance its impact and engagement by incorporating a wider range of perspectives and more detailed analysis of economic forecasts.

Accuracy

The story's core claim that Trump's trade policies are affecting the pulp industry, potentially leading to toilet paper shortages, is factually plausible but requires further verification. The article cites Suzano SA's report of a 20% drop in US-bound exports, a specific figure that can be checked against trade data. However, the potential impact on US store shelves and the broader economy is speculative and relies on predictions from entities like Apollo Global Management. The claim about a universal 10% tariff on Brazilian exports is also verifiable through trade policy documents. Overall, while the story presents credible claims, some elements, particularly economic predictions, are less certain and need more evidence.

Balance

The article primarily presents the perspective of Suzano SA and industry analysts warning about the impact of tariffs. It lacks a counterbalancing viewpoint from US trade officials or economists who might argue the benefits of tariffs or dispute the severity of the predicted outcomes. The absence of a response from the White House, despite being contacted, leaves the narrative somewhat one-sided. Including diverse perspectives could provide a more balanced view of the trade policy's implications.

Clarity

The article is well-structured and uses clear language to convey its points. It logically progresses from the impact of tariffs on Suzano SA to broader economic implications. The tone is neutral, focusing on factual reporting rather than sensationalism. However, the economic predictions could be better contextualized to improve reader understanding of their likelihood and potential impact.

Source quality

The article references credible sources, including Suzano SA, the world's largest pulp exporter, and Apollo Global Management, a well-known investment firm. These sources are authoritative in their respective fields, lending credibility to the claims. The attribution to Bloomberg News for quotes from Suzano's executives further strengthens the reliability of the information. However, the lack of direct quotes or data from US trade officials or economists limits the breadth of source quality.

Transparency

The article provides clear attribution for most of its claims, quoting executives from Suzano and referencing reports from Apollo Global Management. However, it lacks detailed explanations of the methodology used by Apollo to predict economic impacts, which would enhance transparency. The article also doesn't disclose potential conflicts of interest, such as Suzano's vested interest in opposing tariffs, which could affect the impartiality of their statements.