Schmidt Warns Against AI Arms Race—But His Fix Has New Risks

Forbes - Mar 9th, 2025
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In a notable divergence from the prevailing views among American policymakers, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, along with Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang and Center for AI Safety Director Dan Hendrycks, has co-authored a policy paper against a 'Manhattan Project'-style approach to artificial general intelligence (AGI). Their paper, 'Superintelligence Strategy,' cautions that an aggressive U.S.-led pursuit of superintelligent AI might provoke retaliatory measures from China, destabilizing international relations. The authors argue for a strategy that avoids escalating tensions and instead emphasizes disabling threatening AI projects preemptively.

The paper emerges amid discussions in a U.S. congressional commission advocating for a significant investment in AGI, echoing the atomic bomb program of the 1940s. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and the Trump administration's $500 billion 'Stargate Project' reflect this aggressive stance. However, Schmidt and his co-authors suggest a shift from racing to dominate AI to focusing on deterring adversaries from weaponizing AGI. They propose a strategy of Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM) to prevent an AI arms race, yet acknowledge the challenges posed by countries like China with advanced AI capabilities. This approach highlights the delicate balance global leaders must maintain between competition and cooperation in AGI development.

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RATING

6.2
Moderately Fair
Read with skepticism

The article effectively highlights the significant concerns associated with aggressive AGI development, particularly the potential for geopolitical tensions and the need for a cautious approach. It provides a timely discussion on a topic of considerable public interest, with clear language and a coherent structure that make it accessible to readers. However, the article's impact is somewhat limited by the lack of diverse perspectives and direct citations, which affect its balance and source quality. Enhancing transparency and providing a broader range of viewpoints would strengthen the article's reliability and engagement potential. Overall, the article serves as a valuable contribution to the ongoing debate on AGI and international relations, but it could benefit from more comprehensive sourcing and exploration of alternative perspectives.

RATING DETAILS

7
Accuracy

The article presents a factual basis for its claims, particularly regarding Eric Schmidt's co-authored policy paper and its arguments against a 'Manhattan Project' for AGI. The mention of Schmidt's co-authors, Alexandr Wang and Dan Hendrycks, adds credibility, but the article lacks direct citations or links to the paper itself, which would strengthen its accuracy. The claim about a U.S. congressional commission proposing a Manhattan Project-style effort for AGI development is significant but requires further verification, as does the reference to the Trump administration's 'Stargate Project' involving a $500 billion investment, which is substantial and thus necessitates corroboration. The article accurately identifies the potential geopolitical implications of AGI development, but the specifics of China's capabilities and likely responses are speculative without supporting evidence.

6
Balance

The article primarily presents the perspective of Eric Schmidt and his co-authors, emphasizing their cautionary stance on AGI development. It contrasts this with the U.S. government's aggressive approach, represented by the congressional commission and Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. However, it does not sufficiently explore other viewpoints, such as those of policymakers or experts who support rapid AGI development, nor does it provide insights into China's perspective on the matter. The lack of diverse viewpoints results in a somewhat imbalanced presentation that leans towards the authors' cautionary narrative.

8
Clarity

The article is well-structured and presents its arguments in a coherent manner, making it easy for readers to follow the narrative. The language is clear and concise, effectively conveying the complex issues surrounding AGI development and international relations. The article maintains a neutral tone, avoiding sensationalism despite the high-stakes subject matter. However, the inclusion of more context about the policy paper's reception and the broader debate on AGI would enhance clarity further.

5
Source quality

The article references credible figures like Eric Schmidt and Alexandr Wang, adding authority to its claims. However, it lacks direct quotes or references from primary sources, such as the actual policy paper or statements from the U.S. government regarding the 'Stargate Project.' The absence of such sources raises questions about the reliability of some claims, particularly those involving significant financial figures and policy proposals. The article would benefit from more diverse and authoritative sources to bolster its credibility.

5
Transparency

The article provides a clear overview of the policy paper's arguments and the authors' perspectives, but it lacks transparency in terms of sourcing and methodology. It does not disclose how the information was obtained or whether there are any potential conflicts of interest affecting the authors' viewpoints. The absence of direct links to the policy paper or government statements diminishes the article's transparency, leaving readers without a clear path to verify the claims independently.

Sources

  1. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/03/44185833/former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-warn-of-nuclear-level-risks-in-global-superintelligent-ai-race-what-begins-as-a-push-for-a-superweapon
  2. https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/06/schmidt_ai_superintelligence/
  3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JOwtB9VsYc
  4. https://firstmovers.ai/ai-arms-race/