Northern Lights Forecast: 10 States Could See Aurora Borealis Tonight

Forbes - Mar 23rd, 2025

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has projected that the aurora borealis will be more visible than usual on Sunday night, with a Kp index of four on a scale of nine. This increased activity means that Americans in ten states, including Alaska, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota, may have a chance to witness the northern lights. The aurora is expected to extend further south into the U.S. than it typically does, providing a rare opportunity for residents in certain northern parts of Idaho, Maine, Michigan, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin to see the lights if conditions are favorable. NOAA advises viewing the aurora between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., away from city lights and at higher altitudes for the best experience.

The heightened visibility of the northern lights is attributed to a peak in aurora borealis activity, reportedly at a 500-year high according to NASA. This increase in activity is linked to a 'solar maximum' in the sun's 11-year cycle, leading to more frequent solar flares which enhance the visibility of the aurora. This trend is expected to persist into 2025 and 2026, offering more opportunities for skywatchers to experience this natural phenomenon. The event holds significance as it not only provides a visual spectacle but also underscores the dynamic nature of solar and atmospheric interactions and their effects on Earth.

Nasa Aurora Borealis Solar Maximum Noaa Northern Lights Photography Tips

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RATING

7.6

Fair Story

Consider it well-founded

The article provides a clear and timely overview of the aurora borealis forecast, supported by credible sources such as NOAA. It excels in clarity and readability, making the information accessible to a wide audience. While it effectively engages readers with practical advice for viewing and photographing the aurora, it could enhance transparency by explaining the methodology behind its predictions. Additionally, the article could benefit from a more balanced perspective by discussing the broader implications of increased solar activity. Overall, it serves as a reliable and informative piece for those interested in experiencing this natural phenomenon.

Accuracy

The article accurately reports on the projected visibility of the aurora borealis in several U.S. states, referencing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as the source of the forecast. The mention of a Kp index of 4 for Sunday and 3 for Monday aligns with common measures of geomagnetic activity, which are used to predict aurora visibility. However, the claim that aurora activity is at a 500-year peak due to the solar maximum should be cross-verified with NASA's reports to ensure precision. The states listed for potential visibility, such as Alaska and Minnesota, are consistent with typical aurora forecasts, yet specific details about the exact view lines would benefit from direct confirmation from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

Balance

The article primarily focuses on the scientific and observational aspects of the aurora borealis, offering practical advice for viewing and photographing the phenomenon. It does not delve into differing perspectives or potential controversies surrounding space weather predictions. While the piece effectively delivers factual information, it could provide a broader context regarding the implications of increased aurora activity, such as potential impacts on satellite communications or power grids, to offer a more balanced view.

Clarity

The article is well-structured and uses clear, concise language, making it accessible to a general audience. It effectively organizes information into sections, such as where the aurora will be visible and how to photograph it, which aids comprehension. The tone is neutral and informative, focusing on delivering practical information without unnecessary jargon. This clarity ensures that readers can easily understand and act on the advice provided.

Source quality

The article cites NOAA, a reputable and authoritative source for weather and space weather forecasts, lending significant credibility to the information presented. Additionally, the inclusion of photography tips from National Geographic adds another layer of reliability, given the publication's expertise in nature and science reporting. However, the article could enhance its source quality by directly linking to NOAA's forecast page or including quotes from experts to further substantiate its claims.

Transparency

The article provides a clear basis for its claims by referencing NOAA's projections and offering practical advice for aurora viewing. However, it lacks detailed explanations of the methodology behind the Kp index and how it translates into aurora visibility predictions. Including more information on how these forecasts are generated and the factors influencing them would improve transparency. Additionally, acknowledging any uncertainties or limitations in the predictions would enhance the article's transparency.