JPMorgan's Scathing Tesla Prediction: Musk's Car Company Will Report Worst Quarterly Deliveries In 3 Years

Forbes - Mar 12th, 2025
Open on Forbes

Tesla is projected to have its weakest quarter for car deliveries since 2022, according to JPMorgan analysts. The bank's forecast for Tesla's first-quarter deliveries has been slashed by 20%, from 444,000 to 355,000 vehicles, significantly below the consensus projection of 430,000. This decline is attributed to the polarizing influence of Elon Musk in Donald Trump's administration, where his role as head of the Department of Government Efficiency has drawn criticism, especially concerning statements about the war in Ukraine and far-right politics. The reduction in European sales and potential rollback of electric vehicle tax credits under Trump's policies exacerbate Tesla's challenges, with new vehicle registrations in Europe dropping by 50% year-over-year.

The implications of this development are significant, as Tesla's stock continues to face volatility, recovering slightly from recent lows despite an overall 38% decline year-to-date. This situation underscores the broader impact of political affiliations on corporate performance, with Musk's controversial role creating a unique scenario in the automotive industry. JPMorgan's bearish stance, including a $120 share price target, suggests a potential further downturn for Tesla. However, the stock's recent rebound amid easing inflation fears highlights ongoing investor interest, despite the challenges. This complex interplay between politics and business showcases the potential risks of executive involvement in government roles, especially when divisive policies and statements are involved.

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RATING

6.2
Moderately Fair
Read with skepticism

The article provides a timely and relevant analysis of Tesla's projected performance, drawing on credible sources like JPMorgan. However, it lacks balance and transparency in some areas, particularly regarding speculative claims and the absence of diverse perspectives. While the article is structured clearly and addresses topics of public interest, its reliance on a narrow range of viewpoints limits its impact and engagement potential. Enhancing the article by including more context, diverse perspectives, and direct statements from key stakeholders would improve its overall quality and reliability.

RATING DETAILS

6
Accuracy

The news story contains several factual claims that are generally aligned with analyst reports, though some areas lack clear verification. For instance, the claim that JPMorgan analysts lowered Tesla's delivery forecast is supported by various sources [2][4]. However, the assertion that Elon Musk holds a role in the Trump administration as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is not substantiated by any credible sources, raising questions about its accuracy.

The story also mentions a significant decline in Tesla's European sales due to Musk's political statements, which requires further evidence to confirm the direct impact of these statements on sales figures. Furthermore, the potential rollback of electric vehicle tax credits under the Trump administration is speculative and lacks concrete policy references.

The article accurately presents JPMorgan's stock price target for Tesla and the public perception of Musk based on a CNN poll, although the poll figures should be cross-verified with official sources for consistency. Overall, while some claims are well-supported, others need additional verification to ensure complete accuracy.

5
Balance

The article primarily presents a negative outlook on Tesla's future performance, largely based on JPMorgan's bearish analysis. While it does mention the rebound in Tesla's stock price and a broader market rally, these points are briefly covered and do not significantly counterbalance the overall negative tone.

There is a lack of perspectives from Tesla or other analysts who might have a more optimistic view of the company's performance. Including such viewpoints would provide a more balanced representation of the situation. The focus on Elon Musk's controversial role and its purported impact on Tesla's brand value further skews the narrative towards a negative portrayal.

Overall, the article could benefit from a more comprehensive inclusion of diverse perspectives to offer a balanced view of Tesla's current and future market position.

7
Clarity

The article is generally well-structured, with a clear delineation of key facts and figures. It effectively uses subheadings like 'Topline' and 'Key Facts' to organize information, making it easier for readers to follow the narrative.

The language is straightforward, though some claims, such as Musk's role in the Trump administration, are presented without sufficient context, which could confuse readers. Additionally, the article's focus shifts between different topics, such as delivery forecasts and Musk's political influence, which may detract from a cohesive narrative.

Overall, while the article is mostly clear, providing more context for complex claims and maintaining a consistent focus would improve its clarity.

7
Source quality

The article relies on JPMorgan's analysis, a reputable source known for its financial expertise and market insights. The firm’s predictions and analysis are often considered authoritative in the financial industry, lending credibility to the claims about Tesla's forecasted deliveries and stock price target.

However, the article does not provide direct quotes or statements from Tesla or Elon Musk, which would enhance the reliability of the content by including firsthand accounts or responses. Additionally, the mention of a CNN poll adds a layer of public opinion data, though the methodology and details of the poll are not disclosed, which slightly undermines the strength of this source.

Overall, while the primary source is credible, the article could improve by incorporating a wider range of sources and direct statements from involved parties.

6
Transparency

The article provides some context for the claims made, particularly in explaining JPMorgan's rationale for lowering Tesla's delivery forecasts. It also mentions the broader market conditions affecting Tesla's stock performance, which helps readers understand the factors at play.

However, the article lacks transparency in certain areas, such as the methodology behind the CNN poll and the specific statements by Musk that allegedly affected European sales. Additionally, the speculative nature of the potential regulatory changes under the Trump administration is not clearly distinguished from verified information.

Improving transparency by explaining the basis for speculative claims and providing more detailed context for the sources cited would enhance the article's clarity and trustworthiness.

Sources

  1. https://longportapp.com/en/news/231205088
  2. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2736594/jpmorgan-analyst-lowers-tesla-tsla-price-target-amid-declining-delivery-outlook
  3. https://www.ainvest.com/news/tesla-backfire-isn-ubs-downgrade-annual-delivery-warning-2503/
  4. https://finbold.com/more-trouble-for-tesla-as-banking-giant-predicts-50-tsla-crash/
  5. https://fortune.com/2025/03/10/tesla-shares-plummet-as-wall-street-rethinks-sales-projections/