Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio says Trump trade war has put US ‘close to a recession’

New York Post - Apr 14th, 2025

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, expressed concerns on NBC's 'Meet the Press' about the impact of President Trump's trade war on the U.S. economy, suggesting it has brought the nation perilously close to recession. Dalio emphasized that the tariff plan, which includes duties on numerous countries but is primarily focused on China, has been highly disruptive to global markets. He compared the current economic situation to past market crises in 1971 and 2008, warning that the combination of U.S. debt, budget deficits, and global political tensions could lead to a more severe downturn.

Dalio highlighted the broader implications of the current trade and economic policies, pointing to a shift in the world order as rising powers challenge existing structures. His comments suggest that how these changes are managed could exacerbate economic challenges beyond a typical recession. With Bridgewater's significant influence, including its work with pension funds, foundations, and central banks, Dalio's warnings carry weight in financial and political circles. His remarks underscore the precarious balance of current economic policies and the potential for significant global consequences if mismanaged.

Donald Trump Tariffs U.S. Economy Trade War Global Markets Recession Risk Ray Dalio Bridgewater Associates

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RATING

7.6

Fair Story

Consider it well-founded

The article provides a well-researched and timely analysis of Ray Dalio's views on the economic impact of the trade war. It accurately reflects Dalio's statements and concerns, offering a clear narrative that is accessible to a general audience. The article's strengths lie in its factual accuracy, timeliness, and relevance to public interest. However, it could improve by incorporating a wider range of perspectives to enhance balance and by providing more transparency regarding the data and methodology behind Dalio's claims. Overall, the article effectively informs readers about a critical economic issue while maintaining a focus on factual reporting and responsible journalism.

Accuracy

The story accurately reports Ray Dalio's statements regarding the U.S. economy's proximity to a recession due to the trade war. Dalio's comments about the tariffs and their disruptive nature are consistent with his statements on NBC's "Meet the Press." The story also correctly mentions Dalio's concerns about U.S. debt, budget deficit, and global political tensions potentially leading to outcomes worse than a recession. These claims are supported by multiple sources, indicating a high level of factual accuracy. However, the article could benefit from additional context or data to further substantiate the potential economic impacts mentioned.

Balance

The article predominantly presents Ray Dalio's perspective, which is a critical viewpoint given his expertise and the context of the trade war. However, it lacks alternative perspectives that might provide a more balanced view of the economic situation. Including opinions from other economists or financial analysts could enhance the article's balance by offering counterarguments or supporting evidence for Dalio's claims.

Clarity

The article is generally clear and well-structured, providing a coherent narrative of Dalio's statements and their implications. The language is straightforward, making the complex economic issues accessible to a general audience. However, the article could benefit from clearer explanations of economic terms like "recession" and "tariffs" to enhance understanding for readers unfamiliar with these concepts.

Source quality

The primary source of the article is Ray Dalio, a credible and authoritative figure in the financial industry. His position as the founder of Bridgewater Associates lends significant weight to his analysis. However, the article relies heavily on his statements without incorporating additional sources or expert opinions that could provide a broader context or verify his claims independently.

Transparency

The article lacks detailed transparency regarding the basis of Dalio's claims or the specific data supporting his assertions about the economy and trade war. While Dalio's expertise is acknowledged, the article could improve transparency by explaining the methodology or data he used to reach his conclusions. This would help readers understand the foundation of his predictions and the potential biases involved.