Forbes Recession Tracker: Apollo Says 90% Chance Of ‘Voluntary’ Recession Heavily Impacting Small Businesses

Wall Street is deeply concerned about the potential for a recession driven by President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, predicts a 90% chance of a 'Voluntary Trade Reset Recession,' criticizing the administration's ineffective implementation of these policies. Prominent economists and financial leaders, such as Ray Dalio and Lawrence Summers, have voiced strong concerns about an impending recession, pointing out the severe impact on small businesses and potential unemployment spikes. Meanwhile, major banks are divided, with some forecasting recession odds up to 60%.
The broader economic context is marked by global financial instability and investor anxiety, mirrored by rising gold prices and falling oil prices. Despite the Trump administration’s temporary easing of tariffs, uncertainty remains high. The International Monetary Fund has revised its global growth forecasts downward due to trade disruptions, while consumer confidence in the U.S. has plummeted. As the corporate earnings season unfolds, companies like United Airlines are preparing for both stable and recessionary outcomes, highlighting the significant uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook.
RATING
The article provides a comprehensive overview of the economic concerns related to President Trump's tariff policies and the potential for a recession. It effectively captures the diversity of expert opinions and economic forecasts, offering readers a nuanced understanding of the issue. The use of reputable sources and the inclusion of recent data enhance the article's credibility and timeliness.
However, the article could benefit from more precise sourcing and greater transparency in explaining the methodology behind the predictions. While it presents a balanced view of the situation, the emphasis on negative forecasts may overshadow more optimistic perspectives. Enhancing readability through clearer explanations and more concise sections would improve the overall presentation.
Overall, the article is a valuable resource for readers seeking to understand the current economic landscape, though it could be strengthened by providing more actionable insights and addressing potential controversies in greater depth.
RATING DETAILS
The story is largely accurate in its portrayal of the economic concerns related to President Trump's tariff policies. It cites credible sources such as Torsten Slok from Apollo Global Management, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, providing a wide range of expert opinions on the likelihood of a recession. The claim that Slok predicts a 90% probability of a recession due to trade policies aligns with the reported statements. However, the article could enhance accuracy by specifying the exact contexts or reports where these figures are mentioned, ensuring precision in the presentation of expert forecasts.
The article accurately reflects the divergent views among economists and financial institutions, capturing the uncertainty in economic forecasts. For instance, it correctly notes the varying recession probabilities from major banks, which is a critical aspect of the current economic discourse. Nonetheless, the story could improve accuracy by providing more detailed data or direct quotes to support some of the broader claims, such as the specific impacts on small businesses and generational retailers.
Overall, while the article does a commendable job of summarizing expert opinions and economic indicators, it would benefit from more precise sourcing for some of the claims, particularly those predicting specific economic outcomes. This would enhance the verifiability and credibility of the reported information.
The article presents a fairly balanced view of the economic situation, acknowledging both the concerns about a potential recession and the more optimistic outlooks from certain officials. It includes perspectives from a range of stakeholders, including economists, CEOs, and government officials, which helps to provide a comprehensive view of the issue.
However, the article leans slightly towards emphasizing the negative forecasts and potential for a recession. While it does include statements from Kevin Hassett and others who are more optimistic, these are somewhat overshadowed by the more alarming predictions from figures like Ray Dalio and Lawrence Summers. This could lead readers to perceive a bias towards the more pessimistic outlooks.
To improve balance, the article could give more equal weight to the optimistic viewpoints, perhaps by expanding on the reasons for their confidence in the economy's resilience. This would provide a more nuanced picture and help readers understand the full spectrum of opinions on the issue.
The article is generally clear and well-structured, providing a logical progression of information from the initial claims about recession fears to the various expert opinions and economic indicators. The use of subheadings and key facts sections helps to organize the content and guide the reader through the complex topic.
The language is straightforward and accessible, making it easier for readers to grasp the technical economic concepts discussed. However, some sections could be more concise, as the article occasionally delves into detailed forecasts without sufficient explanation of their significance.
Improving clarity could involve breaking down complex economic terms or processes for readers who may not be familiar with them. Additionally, ensuring that each section directly supports the main claims would help maintain focus and improve the overall readability of the piece.
The article draws from a wide array of reputable sources, including prominent economists and major financial institutions, which lends credibility to the information presented. Sources such as Apollo Global Management, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase are well-regarded in the financial industry, and their opinions are highly valued in economic discussions.
The inclusion of government officials like Kevin Hassett also adds to the diversity of perspectives, ensuring that the article does not rely solely on private sector viewpoints. This variety of sources helps to paint a comprehensive picture of the economic landscape.
However, the article could enhance source quality by providing more direct quotes and specific references to reports or statements, which would allow readers to verify the information independently. Additionally, including a broader range of sources, such as academic experts or international perspectives, could further enrich the discussion.
The article provides a good amount of context regarding the economic situation and the factors contributing to recession fears. It explains the potential impacts of tariffs and the different economic forecasts, which helps readers understand the basis for the claims made.
However, the transparency could be improved by more explicitly stating the methodology behind some of the predictions mentioned. For example, explaining how the 90% recession probability was calculated or what specific data points are influencing the various banks' forecasts would enhance the reader's understanding of the underlying analysis.
Additionally, the article could benefit from disclosing any potential conflicts of interest, particularly when citing sources from financial institutions that may have vested interests in the economic outcomes discussed. This would provide readers with a clearer picture of the factors that might influence the perspectives presented.
Sources
- https://www.threads.net/@forbes/post/DIKN73pSSwI/forbes-recession-tracker-goldman-jpmorgan-say-recession-incoming-if-trump-doesnt
- https://www.threads.net/@forbes/post/DH65v6Yy-w8/forbes-recession-tracker-recession-odds-spike-as-trumps-tariff-liberation-day-ap
- https://www.datainsightsmarket.com/news/article/forbes-recession-tracker-what-data-says-about-health-of-the-economy-6472
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